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Abstract
This research analyzes the interaction between economic growth, public spending, and fiscal pressure in Ecuador during the period 2007–2023. The objective is to determine the existence of causal relationships between these variables and verify a possible long-term equilibrium. The methodology was quantitative and descriptive-correlational in scope: an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression was estimated with logarithmic variables, unit root tests were applied to the residuals to assess cointegration, and an error correction model (ECM) was used to capture short- and long-term dynamics, validating the statistical assumptions of the model. Empirical evidence was obtained from official quarterly data from the Central Bank of Ecuador. The assumptions of normality, homoscedasticity, and multicollinearity were tested. Documentary analysis complemented the literature review of previous studies. The results show a coefficient of determination R² = 0.90; public expenditure coefficients ? = +0.70 and tax burden ? = ?0.31; and an error correction term ? = ?0.87, indicating that 87% of the imbalance is corrected in one period. Transitory adjustments of +0.91% for public spending and ?0.34% for tax pressure were observed. All coefficients were statistically significant at 1%. It is concluded that efficient public spending drives economic growth, while high tax pressure limits it. It is recommended that a balanced fiscal policy be implemented to optimize public resources, strengthen competitiveness, and promote investment.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Steven Fernando Cueva Rodriguez, Anthony Joel Coronel Calero, John Alexander Campuzano Vásquez, Luis Fernando Cedillo-Chalaco